Abortion measures on the ballot in November
Ten states — Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Maryland, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New York and South Dakota — have already secured abortion measures on the 2024 ballot. All eyes are on Florida where a small percentage increase of women voters regarding the Reproductive ballot issue could affect races up and down the ballot. Florida will be one of those states you need to keep an eye on.
In key states like Arizona, and Nevada it could help to keep those states in the Democratic column and elect two senators. Montana is a real tight race, and women will have to turn out in huge numbers to keep Senator Tester in the senate. Recent racist remarks about Native Americans by the Republican candidate could lower his support.
No one has made Florida a key target for the Democrats – yet – but within the state there is much energy surrounding abortion rights and the gap is narrowing.
Women have exceeded male voters since 1964, and the separation will probably be even larger given that there is a woman running for the presidency who is a person of color and that abortion is on the ballot in many states.
Even though the purse or wallet strings for financial support has been in the hands of men for so many years, the Democratic Presidential Candidate has broken down that barrier by raising in such a short time over $500 million and galvanizing over 200,000 volunteers.
The Republican National Committee (RNC) hopes to organize 100,000 vote monitoring volunteers to be at key polling places. This is a huge number to be recruited and training will be a monumental task. Many do not believe that they will get to that number. There did not seem to be any numbers available around GOTV volunteers that could be found for the Republican party. Some say that the Republicans don’t need as many because of the hard core MAGA members who will easily turn out to vote.
But down ballot republicans in many races are concerned by the amount of money and attention given to the presidential ticket as compared to what states in the past have received. Behind closed doors some conservative major donors are talking about investing more now in the Senate campaigns than in the presidential.
Early voting begins in some states as early as October 8th, and many more during the third week of October. Campaigns should work hard to get in all the ballots they can within the early date of their state. You can begin tracking which parties and independent groups are voting early and this might be a good indication of who is voting and who might just win.
One campaign expert asked “when was the last time you saw Trump or Vance smile during their campaign events”. And suggested that it would be easy to find photos of Harris and Walz smiling and occasionally laughing. Many on the fence want to see a campaign filled with joy.
Campaigning is a hard job for the candidates as well as the staff and volunteers and it is much better to be on a happy team then one filled with hate.
But in the end it will be who is willing to do the hard work of door knocking, phone calling and event activities that will drive the right voters to the polls.
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