Historic: In 2024 Mexico will have a President. And, according to current statistics, it will be
Claudia Sheimbaum, the candidate of Morena (National Regeneration Movement). There are a long nine months left, but the numbers are what they indicate at the end of August.
Claudia’s victory as MORENA’s candidate had been announced for months, not since López Obrador presented his first list of candidates in 2022, but since the moment when Dr. Sheimbaum became the Head of Government of Mexico City. This fact alone made her the MORENA militant with the greatest reflectors and political presence to be a candidate to occupy the National Palace. The precedent AMLO himself had established it. Before him, there had never been a ruler of Mexico City that had managed to be a candidate for the Presidency of the Republic. That was just one of arguments but there was another very important one: who was one of the leaders of the CEU–University Student Council – the university student movement in 1987 that prevented the establishment of registration fees at UNAM and successfully made it free of charge. She was the only one of the candidates who had always been a member of the left and had won the trust and affection of MORENA’s leader when he incorporated her into her cabinet due to her scientific and physical training, with her PhD in Energy Engineering.
It is important to mention that López Obrador had more confidence in a woman with training in the exact sciences and not in a career politician who, furthermore, had not belonged to the PRI, like himself and Marcelo Ebrard, another of Morena’s candidates. We cannot forget either that Claudia was next to López Obrador in the PRD (Party of the Democratic Revolution) and left with him to found MORENA. While Ebrard remained in the PRD and recently joined Morena. It is clear that Sheimbaum Pardo proved to be more efficient, loyal and reliable for Andrés Manuel López Obrador than Ebrard, and that is why he always sent signals that she was his favorite.
Since surveys began to be carried out, more than a year ago, to measure the possibilities of possible candidates and MORENA’s candidate for candidacy presidential, Dr. Sheimbaum appeared to be in the lead and continues to be. Her popular acceptance among the population surveyed has been a constant.
Claudia Sheimbaum won the MORENA candidacy through five surveys that organized the party of her and four private companies with a wide margin over Marcelo Ebrard, Adán Augusto López, Gerardo Noroña, Ricardo Monreal and Manuel Velasco. It is extremely relevant that a woman from the left, a scientist and of Jewish parents has won MORENA’s internal elections to be their presidential candidate in 2024. This demonstrates that Mexican society is experiencing profound changes in its social structure and political culture. About six years about 70 percent of the the population said that Mexico was not ready for a woman to govern it. In 2023 only about 10 percent think so. And something significant to remember is that intolerance towards Jews in Mexico is minimal. To a large extent this is a result of the formidable work of Claudia Sheimbaum.
But, what is a historical fact is that Mexico will have a woman as Head of State, whether left or right.
In effect, the right, made up of an electoral alliance made up of the Party of National Action(PAN), Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) and Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD), elected on September 3, Xóchitl Gálvez, as its candidate. Gálvez is a businesswoman and senator from the PAN, who won the candidacy also through a survey.
Claudia and MORENA, according to different surveys, have an advantage of at least 8 points (according to the newspaper El Financiero) or 22 points (according to the Spanish newspaper El País) to Xóchitl. Other Polls give Sheimbaum an advantage between 12 and 15 points. The election will be on June 2, 2024 in a very contrasting context:
On the one hand, the economy grew 3.5 percent in 2022 and is forecast to continue doing so doing at the same rate in 2023 and 2024. Unemployment fell in 2023 to 2.5 percent percent, minimum wages increased 20 percent this same year and the poverty for 5 million Mexicans, and social assistance programs for people over 65 years of age, young people studying high school and the disabled have progressively increased. Next year, financial aid to senior citizens will increase 25 percent. All this is favorable for the candidacy of Sheimbaum.
But, on the other hand, criminal violence has increased significantly, to the point that over the course of 5 years of the current Mexican government, more than 160,000 violent deaths have been committed and there have been more than 100,000 forced disappearances, which demonstrates the enormous power of organized crime in Mexico. Additionally, the political presence of criminal organizations has been reproduced in almost the entire national territory.
Likewise, health services, including the distribution of medicines, have substantially deteriorated during this government.
All this is a playground for the political fire that the right-wing Mexican candidate is already firing.
Even with all these major problems, President López Obrador maintains a high popularity, above 60 percent acceptance, and Claudia’s candidacy appears very firm among the population with fewer economic resources and the female population.
Without a doubt these elections will be decided by the poor and women.
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