Economic growth during the six years of Andrés López Obrador’s government (2018–2024), deeply affected by two years of recession caused by the pandemic, was barely 5.5% in total and an annual average of 0.81%. With that scenario, forecasts for the first year of President Claudia Sheinbaum were not good—even the IMF predicted a recession with a contraction of -0.3. But it was not so: the Mexican economy will close 2025 with 0.2% growth.
These weak results, however, cannot be explained without understanding the international context marked by tariff uncertainty, particularly with the United States, which has maintained trade tensions with several partners, including Mexico.
Nevertheless, despite the negative projections of international organizations regarding the performance of the Mexican economy, it has continued its growth pace. It still remains to be seen what increases will come from the construction industry, which is only just now being boosted with new public works projects.
What is most relevant, however, in the management of the economy and Morena’s Government Program is that poverty—and especially extreme poverty—has significantly decreased throughout López Obrador’s term and in the first year of Claudia Sheinbaum’s administration.
In August of this year, Mexico’s Ministry of Labor reported that poverty in Mexico had impressively declined from 51.9 million in 2018 to 38.5 million in 2024. That means the poverty rate now stands at 29.6%, the lowest in history since this indicator has been measured. According to the data presented, from 2018 to 2024 a total of 13.4 million Mexicans left poverty; of these, 1.7 million emerged from extreme poverty, and 6.64 million of the total were lifted out of poverty solely due to increases in the minimum wage.
These results reflect the profound transformation Mexico is undergoing through the labor and social policies implemented by Morena governments, which have centered on the well-being of workers, leaving behind the neoliberal paradigm that kept millions in precarious conditions for decades.
Among the actions that made this improvement possible are: increases to the minimum wage, which has regained 131% of its purchasing power and allowed Mexican families to improve their income; the elimination of outsourcing, which not only ensured workers were recognized by their real employers but also improved their earnings. In addition, social programs such as Jóvenes Construyendo el Futuro (Youth Building the Future), which offers job training to people aged 18 to 29 and helps 7 out of 10 apprentices find a job or productive activity, and Social Programs for Senior Citizens, Single Mothers, and People with Disabilities, have significantly contributed to strengthening the purchasing power of millions of Mexican families.
The reduction of poverty confirms that fair labor policies and a better distribution of wealth are the most effective tools to improve the living conditions of the working population. This achievement demonstrates that the neoliberal model, which prioritized the market over social welfare, was profoundly mistaken.
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